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Appendix B - General Fund Forecast Assumptions

Document

The below information highlights the key area, assumption, along with comments.

You can download a copy of Appendix B - General Fund Forecast Assumptions (PDF) [216KB] .

Pay Award

  • Assumption - £1,925 for 2022/23. 4.5% for 2023/24 then 2% annually.
  • Comment - The assumption for the pay award £1,925 on each salary point for 2022/23 then 4.5% 2023/24 and 2% p.a. thereafter. For information, an additional 1% pay award increase equates to c£225k per annum.

General Prices Inflation

  • Comment - Freeze on all general revenue expenditure with the exception of pay, fuel, insurance, utility budgets and maintenance costs. High inflation increases in these areas.

Slippage

  • Assumption - £2.055m initially included in 2022/23 and a further £0.070m subsequently agreed
  • Comment - Underspend from 2021/22 agreed by Cabinet (July 2022) slipped into 2022/23.

Employers Pension Contribution

  • Assumption - Currently includes 18.4% pa plus deficit recovery payment for 2022/23. Includes 12.8% pa including surplus for 2023/24 to 2025/26.
  • Comment - Figures included as per the outcome of the 2019 Triennial Review which covers 2020/21 to 2022/23 and draft figures for the 2022 Triennial Review covering the period 2023/24 to 2025/26 which is currently being finalised.

Employer National Insurance Contributions

  • Assumption - Employer's standard rate reduced back to 13.8% from November 2022.
  • Comment - 9.4% is the average employer's percentage for the Council in 2023/24. The previous increase of 1.25% to the standard rate announced by Government for 2022/23 is reversed from November 2022.

Government Grant Support

  • Assumption - Based on the Local Government Settlement figures.
  • Comment - Based on the Local Government Finance Settlement figures received February 2022 for 2022/23 and figures received in February 2023 for 2023/24 onwards.

Council Tax Increase

  • Assumption - 1.99% in 2022/23, 2.99% in 2023/24 to 2026/27
  • Comment - The increase set for 2022/23 was 1.99%. This council tax principles have been amended to allow District Councils to increase the council tax up to 3% for 2023/24 onwards.

New Homes Bonus Grant

  • Assumption - One off allocation for 2022/23. One-off allocation for 2023/24 (draft).
  • Comment - The income received from New Homes Bonus reflects the Government's allocations as announced February 2022.

Fees and Charges

  • Assumption - Various
  • Comment - The 2023/24 Fees and Charges are in the process of being reviewed by the Cabinet Members. Increases to fees and charges are agreed by Cabinet Members annually inline with delegations.

Vacancy Savings

  • Assumption - £350k per annum from 2023/24. Plus an additional £100k pa put forward in Savings proposals.
  • Comment - Estimated savings from vacant posts. Forecast increased to £675k for 2022/23 then to £350k pa ongoing based on current vacancy rate. It is also put forward in the Savings proposals to increase this by a further £100k per annum from 2023/24.

Capital Borrowing

  • Assumption - Various
  • Comment - Provision has been made for all Capital Programme borrowing unless indicated in the Programme.

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